===== Modelando a Dinâmica da Dengue =====

  Some directly and vector-transmitted diseases are still not controlled in this century. 
  In modern life, the intense flux of people increases the complexity of their propagation. 
  The knowledge of spatiotemporal propagation is very important to provide early information 
  to population about the risk of an epidemics. So, beside the usual system of cases notification, 
  an internet based-system to monitor transmitted diseases (Influenza) is working in some 
  countries in Europe [1]. We are developing a similar system for dengue in Salvador (Brazil) 
  as a pilot project, whose data will be also useful for modeling the dynamics of dengue.
  In this presentation, we present the main ideas of this project and focus on our proposal 
  of periodically forced model that reproduce the epidemics time series and the complex 
  spatiotemporal patterns observed in the transmission of dengue [2]. We analyze the discrete 
  version of this model that is a two-dimensional cellular automata that comprises three 
  population levels (the human, the adult and immature vector). The rules include seasonal 
  forcing, human and mosquito mobilities, and vector control effects. Results are obtained 
  by comparison with actual data retrieved from dengue epidemics. Different strategies and 
  local action of vector control are relevant, reinforcing the necessity of a fast system of
  cases notification. This work is a collaboration with researchers of Instituto de Física (UFBa), 
  Instituto de Saúde Coletiva (UFBa) and Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência (Fundação Calouste 
  Gulbenkian - Portugal).

  [1] S.P. van Noort, M. Muehlen, H. Rebelo de Andrade, C. Koppeschaar, J.M. Lima Loureno, M.G.M. 
      Gomes; Eurosurveillance 12, 7, 3 (2007).
  [2] L.B.L. Santos,  M.C. Costa, S.T.R. Pinho, and R.F.S. Andrade, F.R. Barreto, M.G. Teixeira, 
      and M.L. Barreto; Phys. Rev. E 80, 016102 (2009).